Friday, May 9, 2008

What Would A Top Feel Like?

I haven't been great, as of late, in judging investor sentiment. I've distrusted this rally all the way above S&P 1400. That's fine--I may have lost an opportunity but I haven't lost money. But now I distrust my own judgment. As soon as I wrote a post where I simply imagined becoming bullish, the market sold off and continues to do so today (thank you, AIG). Therein lies the trick with sentiment--when you feel the market is doomed and want to sell everything, it's rally time; when you feel you should finally stop being a bear and jump on board, it's correction time.

I've been asking myself, what would a top (meaning a top to the Bear Stearns rally) feel like? Maybe something like this:
  • Calm. Volatility is low. Wasn't it silly to panic?
  • Complacent. Those financial stocks aren't so bad after all. Why not buy them?
  • Confident. Uncle Sam and Uncle Ben got your back, and the check is in the mail.
  • Cocky. Recession? No worries. Short and shallow.
  • Crazy. $125 dollar oil is no big deal. No problem there.
I didn't intend to use all C's there, but once I started I couldn't stop. Sorry about that.

The point is, while I haven't been spot on as far as anticipating changes in sentiment, I wonder if we won't look back at this week consider it the end of a bear market rally. Isn't this what it would feel like? I'm not predicting, I'm just thinking out loud.

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