Random Musings With No Clear Direction

Some random thoughts:

• Since November 19th, when I said I'd be a contrarian, oil is in fact down and the dollar is up, as I predicted. So why am I unhappy with DUG, the short oil & gas ETF? It is not a pure way to short oil, and not a great way to play a bouncing dollar so far. Just letting you know, watching closely.
• With all the macro-economic noise out there, I ask myself: Do macro-economic trades ever go well? For me, that is?
  
• Video game stocks have popped after huge sales on black Friday and a positive announcement from Activision (ATVI). ATVI and Gamestop (GME) are both up over 10% over the past 4 days.
• If the market tanks, do I still like video games? Yes. Here's why.
  

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• Above is a 2 yr chart of ATVI compared with the Nasdaq from October 2000 to October 2002. October 2000 was the beginning of the last cycle, when Playstation 2 was released. As you can see, the Naz was down over 50% during that time, while ATVI was up, at one point, over 250%. What this tells me is that a growing video game cycle can overcome even the worst market. The current cycle is just about a year old...

Other than that, not many new ideas today. The market is resting today from its bounce, but could bounce further into December. There is no clear direction. Since most stocks trade with the overall market, it's a tough place to make a big bet either way. So ya know, I'm keeping an open mind, but if the bounce fails in the coming days/weeks, I'd be looking to trade the short financials (SKF), short Russell 2000 (TWM), or short real estate (SRS). Could be wrong, but cash is still a nice pillow to sleep on for the time being...

For an excellent analysis on how certain sectors could be in a bear while the overall market remains a bull, check out this article by Fil Zucchi on Minyanville.